As we approach the 2025 holiday season, investors in triple‑net (NNN) commercial real estate must pay close attention to the broader retail landscape. The performance of retail tenants during the holiday period (roughly November through January) can meaningfully impact occupancy, tenant renewals, tenant profitability, and ultimately landlord return stability. At Brisky, we advise that while headwinds exist, opportunities remain for well‑positioned NNN retail properties.
This article offers a data‑driven forecast of holiday retail trends in 2025 and actionable tips for NNN investors to prepare.
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Macro Retail Outlook for Holiday 2025
Slower Growth, But Still Positive
Leading industry forecasts indicate growth in U.S. holiday retail sales will remain positive in 2025—but at a slower pace than recent years.
- Deloitte projects holiday (November through January) U.S. retail sales to increase 2.9 % to 3.4 % year‑over‑year, with total sales of $1.61 to $1.62 trillion.
- Mastercard’s Economics Institute (MEI) forecasts sales (excluding autos) of +3.6 % year‑over‑year from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24, with e‑commerce rising ~7.9 % and brick‑and‑mortar ~2.3 %.
- These figures reflect a deceleration compared with the ~4.2 % growth in 2024, estimated by Deloitte and ~4.1 % by Mastercard.
Drivers and Headwinds
Key headwinds for the season include:
- Elevated inflation and rising tariffs, which may drive up prices but constrain volume.
- A compressed holiday season calendar (in some years) and consumers increasingly value‑conscious.
- Slower disposable personal income (DPI) growth, moderating retail growth. Deloitte expects DPI growth of 3.1 % to 5.4 % this season.
Bright spot:
E‑commerce remains the growth engine. Deloitte forecasts e‑commerce holiday sales rising 7 % to 9 %, on a base of ~$305 to $310.7 billion.
Implications for Retail Property Investors
- Slower but steady growth suggests tenant stress is a possibility, especially for weaker operators or those heavily dependent on physical foot‑traffic.
- Properties with strong e‑commerce support (fulfillment, click‑and‑collect) or experiential/destination tenants may outperform.
- Rent growth and occupancy retention might hinge on tenant cost pressures and their ability to pass on pricing.
- The “value proposition” of physical retail becomes more critical: location, minimal friction, “experience” component.
Digital & Omni‑Channel Domination
- Online holiday sales are projected to grow ~7.9 % (Mastercard) or up to 9 % (Deloitte) in 2025.
- Brick‑and‑mortar store growth is weak by comparison (approx. 2.3 % for in‑store per Mastercard).
- More consumers will rely on generative AI, social media influencers, and mobile commerce to guide gift‑giving decisions.
Investor takeaway:
Retail locations with strong online‑to‑offline integration (BOPIS, curbside, same‑day pickup) will have a competitive advantage. NNN leases with tenants leveraging omni‑channel models may offer greater resilience.
Value, Pricing Pressure & Tariffs
- Because inflation and tariffs are contributing to nominal growth rather than volume growth, consumers will seek value.
- According to consumer surveys by Deloitte, average holiday spend is expected to fall ~10 % versus 2024 (to approx. US$1,595 per shopper) with 77 % expecting higher prices.
Investor takeaway:
Tenants may face margin pressure if they absorb cost increases; fixed‑rent NNN tenants may be squeezed unless they have pricing power or cost‑control strategies. Monitor tenants in categories vulnerable to tariffs (e.g., toys, jewelry, décor) and ensure their business models are robust.
Experiential & Health/Wellness Growth
- Beyond traditional goods, categories like health/wellness, fitness tech, and “experience” oriented retail are showing faster growth. Mastercard’s MEI notes fitness‑tech brand spending rose 30 % year‑over‑year pre‐holiday.
- Social and experience‑driven spending (among Gen Z and younger) is increasingly important.
Investor takeaway:
Consider NNN properties housing tenants in the wellness/fitness/expert categories (e.g., boutique gyms, cryotherapy, fitness equipment showrooms) given their momentum. Traditional big‑box or generic apparel may face greater headwinds.
Gift Cards & Spill‑Over Effects
- Gift cards are expected to be a larger portion of spending this season—especially given inflation, consumers may purchase gift cards to give choice to recipients. MEI data shows nearly 30 % of gift card spending occurs in December/January.
- This also means some spending will spill into early 2026, which affects tenant cash flow timing.
Investor takeaway:
For NNN properties dependent on pure holiday‑season foot traffic, anticipate some timing shifts and potential extended tail into January. Ensure lease language and tenant business plans accommodate slower ramp/later spend.
Strategic Tips for NNN Lease Investors
Prioritize Tenant Quality & Adaptability
- Evaluate tenants’ omni‑channel platforms: those with strong online presence + in‑store fulfilment capability are better positioned.
- Evaluate tenants’ exposure to price/volume pressure: categories more vulnerable to tariffs/inflation (e.g., apparel imports, decorative goods) carry more risk.
- Ensure your lease structure provides appropriate tenant support: NNN leases reduce landlord expense exposure, but tenant bankruptcy risk remains.
Lease Terms & Location Matters
- Locations with drive‑up/curbside access, strong parking, or co‑location with experiential anchors will fare better in a value‑seeking and convenience‑driven season.
- Consider lease escalations tied to CPI or tenancy sales floorspace performance (where applicable). While we favour pure NNN, understanding tenant sales health is helpful.
- Check whether the tenant has flexibility in lease commitments—amid a slower growth environment, flexibility may matter.
Scenario‑Planning for Slow Growth
- Given the forecast 2.9 %–3.6 % growth, investors should model downside scenarios: e.g., what happens if growth is zero or negative in a certain tenant category.
- Monitor tenant performance early in Q4: if promotional early buying is shifting earlier (as some reports suggest), then foot traffic in December may be compressed.
- Consider lease renewal strategy now: engage with tenants early to discuss upcoming renewal terms in light of changing consumer behavior.
Portfolio Mix & Diversification
- A mix of tenants across categories (value‑oriented, experience/wellness, e‑commerce enabled) can hedge risk.
- Consider NNN properties tied to logistics or fulfillment (omni‑channel pickup locations) as part of the portfolio strategy.
- Geographic diversification helps—as consumer behavior and inflation/tariff impact may vary regionally.
Communicate to Stakeholders
- Use the insight from this season’s forecasts (Deloitte’s $1.61 trillion estimate, Mastercard’s 3.6 % growth) as part of your investor reporting.
- Make transparent how you are evaluating tenant risk, location resilience, and lease structure in light of softer retail growth.
How Brisky Supports NNN Investors Through Holiday 2025
At Brisky, we specialize in commercial‑real‑estate investments focused on triple‑net (NNN) leases. Our services help investors to:
Identify strong NNN retail assets with tenants that match holiday‑2025 resilience themes (e‑commerce enabled, value/experience oriented, well‑located).
Evaluate lease terms and tenant risk in light of the 2025 retail forecast, including inflation/tariff exposure and online/offline mix.
Manage portfolio diversification, so you are not overly exposed to a single retail sub‑category vulnerable to holiday headwinds.
Communicate effectively with investors and stakeholders, using current data and trends to support your acquisition strategy.
You can explore our current inventory of NNN retail assets on our Inventory page, learn about our full service offerings on the Services page, or get in touch via our Contact page..
Navigating Holiday 2025 With Confidence
The holiday shopping season of 2025 may not show the robust leaps of the pandemic years, but it remains a crucial period for retail and for NNN commercial‑real‑estate investors. With retail sales growth projected at ~2.9 %–3.6 %, and e‑commerce growth remaining strong (~7 %–9 %), the winners will be those tenants and properties that adapt to a value‑driven consumer, integrate digital and physical shopping, and offer differentiated experiences.
For NNN investors, the key is not to avoid risk—but to manage it smartly: focus on tenant adaptability, favorable lease structures, resilient locations, and diversification. At Brisky we stand ready to guide you with targeted strategy and best practices.
To discuss how your NNN retail investment portfolio can be optimized, don’t hesitate to contact us.